Looking Ahead: US CPI, Trade Developments, and PMI Data Set the Tone for Global Markets

Market Overview

The US Dollar ended last week under pressure despite a late rebound on Friday, as renewed US–China trade tensions, uncertainty from the government shutdown, and growing expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve capped its strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY) snapped a three-day losing streak with support from firmer Treasury yields but closed the week lower overall, highlighting persistent headwinds for the greenback.

This week’s trading outlook is dominated by a busy economic calendar, with US inflation data, flash PMIs, and consumer sentiment figures taking center stage. Developments in US–China trade relations and the ongoing shutdown will also remain closely monitored as potential catalysts for volatility.

US Dollar Outlook: Data Calendar in Focus

The absence of several government data releases due to the shutdown has narrowed visibility on the US economy. However, key reports are still expected this week, including:

• Oct 21: API Weekly Crude Oil Report
• Oct 22: MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Inventories
• Oct 23: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales
• Oct 24: CPI, flash S&P Global PMIs, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales

The October CPI release and PMI surveys will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next moves. Markets continue to price in further policy easing into year-end, with investors looking for confirmation of disinflation trends.

Euro Steady, Pound Supported by Data

EUR/USD finished the week with modest gains, holding below the 1.1700 resistance zone. Eurozone data this week includes Current Account and Construction Output (Oct 20), preliminary Consumer Confidence (Oct 23), and advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs, alongside ECB inflation expectations (Oct 23). These releases will provide insight into the Eurozone’s growth trajectory as inflationary pressures ease.

GBP/USD ended the week firm near 1.3400, with traders turning to UK data for direction. Upcoming highlights include Public Sector Net Borrowing (Oct 21), Inflation Rate (Oct 22), CBI Business Optimism and Industrial Trends (Oct 23), and a packed Oct 24 session featuring Retail Sales, GfK Consumer Confidence, and flash PMIs. Sterling remains sensitive to inflation surprises and signals from the Bank of England.

Yen Holds Above 150.00, AUD Rebounds

USD/JPY retreated from last week’s peak north of 153.00, slipping back above the 150.00 level. Investors will watch Japan’s Balance of Trade (Oct 22), Foreign Bond Investment (Oct 23), and inflation data (Oct 24) for policy implications. Flash PMIs and leading indicators will also shed light on Japan’s growth momentum.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD rebounded from two-month lows, closing just shy of 0.6500. Australia’s flash PMIs (Oct 24) could prove pivotal in determining whether the Australian Dollar can extend its recovery.

Central Bank Speeches and Decisions

Central bank speakers are set to provide further direction this week. Highlights include:

• Oct 20: BoJ’s Takata, ECB’s Schnabel
• Oct 21: RBA’s Jones, BoJ’s Himino, Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Nagel, Lane, Lagarde, BoE’s Cleland
• Oct 22: ECB’s Lagarde, Buch, De Guindos, BoE’s Woods
• Oct 23: ECB’s Lane, BoE’s Hall
• Oct 24: RBA’s Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone, BoE’s Woods

On the policy side, the People’s Bank of China, Hungary’s MNB, Indonesia’s BI, South Korea’s BoK, and Turkey’s CBRT are all scheduled to announce rate decisions, with Turkey’s central bank expected to deliver another sizable hike after inflation surged.

Summary

Global markets face a data-heavy week that will test investor sentiment and currency momentum. The US Dollar enters on the defensive, with CPI and PMI data likely to determine whether its recent decline deepens. Meanwhile, the euro and pound face critical growth and inflation updates, while the yen and Aussie remain tied to domestic data and broader risk appetite. With trade tensions and the US government shutdown also in play, volatility risks remain elevated across major FX pairs.