Forex – November 1, 2025

# USD/CAD Daily Market Overview – November 1, 2025

## 1️⃣ What’s Happening
Over the last 24 hours, the USD/CAD currency pair experienced notable volatility, trading within a range of 1.3650 to 1.3725. The Canadian dollar saw slight depreciation against the U.S. dollar, influenced by fluctuating oil prices and recent economic data releases. The pair closed the session at approximately 1.3700, reflecting a gain of 0.3% for the USD.

## 2️⃣ Market Overview (Fundamental)
The U.S. dollar’s strength can be attributed to a robust employment report released last week, which indicated lower unemployment rates and strong wage growth, fueling expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Conversely, the Canadian dollar is closely linked to oil prices, which saw a downturn due to increased production forecasts from OPEC+. Additionally, the Bank of Canada’s recent dovish stance amidst concerns over economic growth has weakened CAD sentiment.

## 3️⃣ Technical Snapshot
– **Trend**: The USD/CAD pair is currently in a bullish trend, having recently broken above its 50-day moving average.
– **Resistance Levels**: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3750, with a stronger level at 1.3800.
– **Support Levels**: Key support is identified at 1.3600, followed by 1.3550.
– **RSI**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, indicating bullish momentum but nearing overbought territory.
– **MACD**: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover, supporting a continuation of upward momentum.
– **SMA Alignment**: The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, confirming a bullish trend.

## 4️⃣ Trade Setup
– **Entry**: Long position at 1.3700
– **Stop Loss**: 1.3650 (30 pips)
– **Target**: 1.3780 (80 pips)
– **Rationale**: The bullish trend, combined with RSI momentum and MACD signals, suggests a favorable environment for a long position, with a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 2.67.

## 5️⃣ What to Watch Next
Investors should monitor upcoming U.S. and Canadian economic data releases, including the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on November 3 and Canadian GDP figures on November 4. Additionally, any comments from Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada officials regarding monetary policy could significantly impact the USD/CAD pair.

## 6️⃣ Key Takeaway
The USD/CAD pair is currently biased towards the upside, driven by U.S. dollar strength and a weakening Canadian dollar influenced by oil market dynamics and dovish BoC sentiment.

## 7️⃣ Q&A
**Q1: What influenced the recent move in USD/CAD?**
A1: The recent move was primarily influenced by strong U.S. employment data and a decline in oil prices affecting CAD.

**Q2: What are the key resistance levels for USD/CAD?**
A2: Key resistance levels are at 1.3750 and 1.3800.

**Q3: How is the market reacting to the Fed’s stance?**
A3: The market is bullish on the USD, anticipating further interest rate hikes from the Fed, which has strengthened the dollar against the CAD.