FOMC Minutes in Focus as USD Eyes Key Global Data Events

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the release of the FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar Index (DXY) faced renewed selling pressure this week, though the downside was cushioned by stronger-than-expected US economic data in the latter half. Looking ahead, the spotlight will be on the FOMC Minutes set for release on July 9, alongside the NFIB Business Optimism Index and the API’s weekly crude oil inventory report on July 8. The calendar also includes MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, and the EIA’s oil stockpile data, while Initial Jobless Claims will be released on July 10.

The EUR/USD pair extended its gains for a second consecutive week, climbing to multi-year highs above 1.1800. Key Eurozone data includes Germany’s Industrial Production on July 7, Eurozone Retail Sales, and the Eurogroup Meeting. Germany’s Trade Balance is due on July 8, with final Inflation Rate data expected on July 10. The week wraps up with Germany’s Current Account and Wholesale Prices on July 11.

Despite touching fresh multi-year highs near 1.3800, GBP/USD eased slightly due to investor concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook. The Halifax House Price Index is scheduled for July 7, followed by the BBA Mortgage Rate. The BoE’s Financial Stability Report on July 9, RICS House Price Balance on July 10, and a busy July 11—featuring GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR GDP Tracker—will keep trader’s alert.

The Japanese Yen’s strength pushed USD/JPY lower for a second week, with the pair stabilizing around 144.50. Key releases include Average Cash Earnings on July 7, followed by Coincident and Leading Economic Indices. The Current Account, Bank Lending, and Eco Watchers Survey are due July 8, with Machine Tool Orders on July 9, and Foreign Bond Investment and Producer Prices on July 10.

AUD/USD extended its gains for a second straight week, testing the key 0.6600 level. Focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on July 8, accompanied by the RBA Press Conference and the NAB Business Confidence Index. Final readings for Building Permits and Private House Approvals are due July 9.

Key Central Bank Speeches and Events:

• July 7: ECB’s Nagel speaks
• July 8: ECB’s Nagel continues remarks
• July 9: RBA’s Hauser and Hunter, ECB’s Lane, Nagel, and De Guindos speak
• July 10: Fed’s Musalem, Waller, and Daly to speak, along with ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Breeden
• July 11: ECB’s Cipollone speaks again

Upcoming Central Bank Rate Decisions:

• July 2: RBA holds rates at 3.85% (vs. 3.60% expected)
• July 9: BNM expected to keep rates at 3.00% (unchanged), alongside RBNZ holding at 3.25%