Gold’s 2025 Outlook: Will Record Highs Continue?

Gold Price Outlook for 2025: Will We See Another Record-Breaking Year?

• Gold flourished in 2024 as the preferred safe-haven asset, rising by approximately 25% and hitting an all-time high.
• Geopolitical events and Donald Trump’s policies are anticipated to impact gold prices in 2025.
• However, the technical outlook for gold suggests a potential slowdown in bullish momentum as the new year begins.

Gold thrived in 2024, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and a global move toward more accommodative monetary policies. It reached a record high of $2,790 and gained approximately 25% over the year. However, the uncertainty surrounding the potential effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on the global economy, combined with ongoing geopolitical unpredictability, creates a more uncertain outlook for the precious metal in 2025.

Gold in 2024: Geopolitical Tensions and Central Bank Purchases Drive Rally to Record Highs

Gold began the year on a subdued note, trading within a narrow range of around $2,000 during January and February. Investors were cautious, avoiding significant positions while monitoring geopolitical developments and evaluating how macroeconomic trends might influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.

Gold gained upward momentum in late February, surging nearly 10% in March to achieve a new all-time high above $2,200. This rally was driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD), a decline in US Treasury bond yields, and robust Chinese demand during the Spring Festival, all of which provided strong support as the first quarter concluded.

April saw Gold extend its bullish trend, climbing above $2,400 before retreating in the month’s latter half. Despite the pullback, XAU/USD ended April with a gain exceeding 2%. However, an unexpected rise in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate prompted investors to price in a delay in the Fed’s anticipated policy shift. Consequently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased by more than 10% in April, limiting Gold’s upside potential.

After a two-month consolidation in May and June, Gold regained momentum in July, initiating a sustained four-month uptrend. Between July and November, the precious metal advanced over 15%, reaching a new record high near $2,800 by the end of October’s final trading session.