Natural Gas Prices Hold Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Natural gas prices stay within a narrow range despite ongoing geopolitical tensions

Global gas prices remain confined within a narrow range despite recent geopolitical developments. Dutch TTF prices hover in the mid-to-low €30s/MWh, Asian JKM spot prices stay just under $12/mmBtu, and US Henry Hub levels hold near $3.

Tensions around Russian energy exports have added mild bullish sentiment as part of efforts toward a swift peace deal. However, according to UBS, these factors have had minimal impact on the broader market outlook.

Fundamentals remain stable, supported by steady global supply despite some production challenges. The recent launch of LNG Canada is a notable event but has not significantly altered market dynamics.

The ongoing heatwave bolsters expectations for Asian demand, yet UBS notes no substantial rise in Asian imports to tighten the market, helping keep prices range bound.

In the US, slight production declines, robust feedgas and power demand, and new feedgas deliveries to Golden Pass LNG provide modest support. Still, loose fundamentals and storage levels above seasonal averages are expected to continue limiting price upside.