Markets Eye FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium

Looking ahead to the coming week, attention will turn to the FOMC Minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The US Dollar (USD) extended its weekly decline as markets increasingly priced in additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, while mixed US data releases kept the currency under pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY) notched its second straight weekly loss, slipping below 98.00 amid ongoing speculation of further easing.

Looking ahead, the NAHB Housing Market Index is the sole release for August 18. On August 19, Building Permits, Housing Starts, and the API’s weekly crude oil inventory report are scheduled. August 20 will feature the MBA Mortgage Applications, the EIA’s crude oil stock data, and the FOMC Minutes. The Jackson Hole Symposium begins on August 21, coinciding with Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, flash S&P Global PMIs, Existing Home Sales, and the CB Leading Index. The Symposium continues into August 22.

EUR/USD built on its recent strength, reclaiming the 1.1700 level as the Greenback corrected lower. In the eurozone, Balance of Trade data arrives on August 18, followed by the Current Account on August 19. Germany’s Producer Prices and EMU’s final inflation figures are due August 20. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the euro area are expected on August 21, alongside Construction Output and Consumer Confidence for the bloc. On August 22, Germany’s final Q2 GDP Growth Rate, along with the ECB’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and Negotiated Wage Growth, will close the week.

GBP/USD held firm as sterling benefited from the Bank of England’s hawkish cut and continued USD weakness. The UK’s Inflation Rate is scheduled for August 20. Public Sector Net Borrowing, preliminary PMIs, and the CBI Industrial Trends Orders are due on August 21, with Retail Sales and the GfK Consumer Confidence survey following on August 22.

USD/JPY remained volatile, trading between 147.00 and 148.00, as investors tracked global trade developments and Fed policy speculation. Japan’s calendar begins with the Tertiary Industry Index on August 18, followed by Balance of Trade on August 20 and Machinery Orders. August 21 brings Foreign Bond Investment data and flash PMIs, while Inflation figures on August 22 will dominate attention.

AUD/USD was unable to capitalize on dollar weakness, ending the week slightly lower around 0.6500. Australia’s calendar includes Consumer Inflation Expectations on August 18 and Westpac Consumer Confidence on August 19. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are scheduled for August 21.

Key central bank speakers: The RBA’s Connolly (Aug 19), Jones and McPhee (Aug 20), and the Fed’s Bowman (Aug 19), Waller and Bostic (Aug 20), Bostic (Aug 21), and Powell (Aug 22) are set to speak.

Central bank meetings (Aug 20):

• PBoC (3.00%–3.50% actual vs. 3.00%–3.50% expected)
• BI (5.25% actual vs. 5.25% expected)
• RBNZ (3.25% actual vs. 3.00% expected)
• Riksbank (2.00% actual vs. 2.00% expected)